Not So Fast, Folks

I have found with a mixture of amusement and annoyance this thought that has permeated the blogosphere over the last year or so concerning the iPad.  Simply put, the meme that the game is over before it has even begun.  Apple won.  Everyone else is doomed.  Doomed, I tell you. 

To those people, may I present a little reality into the Jobsian distortion-field.  You see, while tablets are now white hot, while the iPad is the fastest growing electronic gadget evah, when you combine the number of users of tablet with smartphones, (you know, your iPhone, Android and the like) it comes out to only 0.3% of the Earth’s inhabitants as of the end of 2010.  That represents about 394 million users total.  That number, while quite large falls behind the following:

• Newspaper subscriptions (530 Million)
• TV subscriptions (600 million) 
• Landline telephones (1 billion)
• Total PCs (1.3 billion)
• Mobile subscribers (5.1 billion)

Now I’m not saying the market is not growing; in fact it will continue to grow at a pretty heady pace.  If it wasn’t growing, there wouldn’t be any interest and the iPad would be another “hobby” like Apple TV.  But it is rather ridiculous to call the game before the teams are even introduced.  There are plenty of players and plenty of time and room to disrupt the market.  Because, to quote Exene Czervenka, “this is the game that moves as you play it”.  And there are a lot of groups out there that can play.

The Ghosts of CES Past

CNET.com has a nice little story that revisits the Consumer Electronics Show of 2010 and looks at all those wonderful things they gushed about-and where those things are one year later.  What it basically shows is that some of the items were right on the money, others passed by for other technologies and some were vaporware. 

The examples of items on the money included the diminutive but awesomely powered Dell Alienware M11X, a gaming laptop, and Tenrehte Technologies’ Picowatt Wi-Fi Smart plugs, an item that cannot be found by regular folks because businesses are picking them up before they can hit the market.  The My Ford Touch interface which is in just about every Ford made now is also one of the winners, not because Ford is putting in vehicles, but because it actually works and works well.

In the grey area, sits the Motorola backflip, AT&T’s android phone. As most phones, this was quickly eclipsed by all the other phones released.  Not being all that great didn’t help.  Intel’s Wireless Display also sits here, simply because of poor execution. 

Then finally, onto the land of misfit toys.  Cell TV was vaporware from the start, as was Lenovo’s IdeaPad U1 Hybrid.

There were a couple that CNET were positive about that did not take off as thought.  Smartbooks, which were netbooks with non-Windows operating systems, cellular data contracts and cloud-based applications were overshadowed by Apple’s iPad and Android/Chrome.  The idea is still valid, but it needs to be executed better.  Ditto with Intel’s Wireless Display. 

As CES opens, it will be interseting what will grab people’s imaginations out there and which, over time, will prove to be ideas best forgotten.

…Try the Veal, And Remember to Tip Your Waitress…

Happy New Year to all.  And since it is the new year, it’s time to climb into the Rambler and head to Las Vegas for this year’s Consumer Electronics Show. 

Of course, it would be really fun this year if there was something to see.  But there won’t be.  It looks to be a basic re-run of 2010 with some minor updates.  Do not expect anything massive or unexpected.  People are saying evolutionary, not revolutionary.  Which basically means boring.

You will see tablets.  All kinds of tablets.  So many tablets.  You will hear people gushing about tablets like new parents go on about their child.  That child’s name, by the way, is Honeycomb, the latest version of Android.  Because that is what most of the new tablets will be ready to run.  Do yourself a favor-understand that  if you have an iPad, you’ve still got the best thing out there for the moment.  But if you’re really interested, pass by all the others though, and stop by Research In Motion’s  booth to see their Playbook tablet.  Right now, if there is anything that could take on the iPad and carve out some space, it will be that.  But trust me, Apple is still king for the moment. 

Also, everyone is holding their collective breath over what Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg will say, given he will have the all important keynote address.  Breathe.  He’ll talk about his “4G” network, that isn’t 4G at all.  If you think that he’ll mention iPhone and Verizon in the same sentence, forget it.  If he does, Steve Jobs will kill him and bury him out in the desert before nightfall.

Expect Intel to be talking up its Sandy Bridge chip and PC manufacturers to present Kate Moss thin laptops.  You will also see the next generation of smartphone handsets equipped with dual core chips. Smarter, faster, but yeah, expected.  Nothing surprising or really newsworthy. 

What you probably won’t see is much emphasis on Google TV.  That was going to be the big thing this year and then…nothing.  Google is keeping mum as to what is going on (or going wrong), but the fact is, consumers just didn’t pick it up at Christmas like Google thought they would.  Again, not having the major networks on the same page also makes things difficult. 

So realize that if you’re going to the show this year, you’ll probably have a lot of free time on your hands.  Garth Brooks is playing at the Wynn Encore.  Given the show he puts on, it will probably be more exciting. Just remember, tip your waitress.  They work hard for the money.

When Is A Tablet Not A Tablet?

When it’s a book.  One of my complaints about tablets has centered around the form factor.  If I’m going to carry around a tablet the size of a laptop, why not carry around a laptop?  The fact that a tablet is missing the bottom half is annoying as all hell.  The fact that the iPad looks like a phone on steroids proved to me that a tablet just won’t fly in my world.  It may in others, but, no, sorry. 

And then, I stumbled back in September upon a concept from Microsoft called “Courier” and stopped for a moment.  It wasn’t a laptop, but it wasn’t the obvious tablet that everyone was designing around.  It was intriguing, it was clean, it was quite unlike anything Microsoft had thrown out there.

It was beautiful, but it was a concept.  A prototype.  Something that would never see the light of day.  A supermodel that had been photo-shopped into a different person entirely.

“Oh well,” I said, “this will never happen”.  Besides, its operation would be based on my second pet peeve, handwriting recognition.  Forget it.  And so I did.  Steve introduce the iPad, and everyone else followed suit with the same form.  For me, I was looking at a new laptop.

And then, much like Christie Brinkley in National Lampoon’s Vacation, Courier came back with yet more interesting details.  More pictures.  Another video.  And a tenuous date of launch.  Q3 or maybe Q4 of 2010.  This was beyond intrigue.  Now I am seriously interested, as in how much and where does the line begin. 

The big news: size.  One inch thick and five by seven when closed.  Weighs a little over a pound.  Built in camera.  Now I happen to have a picture frame that is hinged and holds two five by seven pictures in it and for me, this is the Goldilocks size.  It is the size of a real notebook.  It may not fit in my pocket, but I can carry it around with ease.  The operating system is OK.  Not Windows 7 but the same OS that runs Zune HD and Mobile 7 for Phones.  This follows the same OS split path that Apple has done with the iPad.  But now we’re back to my feelings about handwriting recognition.  I mean having a supermodel by your side is one thing, but having a supermodel that understands what you’re talking about is another.  The videos neither prove nor disprove it.  I’m going to have to wait. 

So, is this just another tease?  Some sites tend to think not, and Microsoft has been acting coy about the whole thing.  All I know is that if it does become available and if the handwriting recognition works well, then it will be under serious consideration.  Until then, Beverly D’Angelo,  my current laptop, is sticking around at least for another six to nine months. 

Pictures and videos available through engadget.  Just click here.

WordPress Tags: Courier, Microsoft, Tablets

Now Playing: Jamiroquai – Travelling Without Moving – You Are My Love

Let The Hyperventilating Begin

Oh my.  Word lets out that Apple has something “very big” to announce in January, and right on cue the major writers out there are looking like dogs that haven’t had a bite to eat in the last ten minutes. 

Of course the talk is about the iGuide, or iSlate, or iPad or simply, the Apple tablet.  According to reports, the event will focus on the mobility space, which could actually mean a lot of different things. But of course the rumors for the last ten months or so have been about the tablet.  There have also been reports that Apple has placed an order for 10 inch screens. There are reports that Steve Jobs ate a ham and cheese sandwich!  Just kidding on that one, but come on, people.  Someone hears something from someone’s best friend and suddenly Steve is going to save the world again.  I would swear that we’re a pack of cigarettes and a failed pregnancy test from being back in high school. 

But overall, perhaps the best hyper ventilator out there currently has to  be Ben Kunz for Business Week, who took this unconfirmed story of an announcement and blew it up into a spread on how the Apple tablet is going to change the world, including how the tablet will revive print media, increase telecommuting, lower communication costs, hell, give it a chance and it will win the war on terror and have the Palestinians and Jews singing kum-bay-yah.  

I understand the last big thing out of Apple was the iPhone three years ago.  I also understand that people are hungry for the next big thing.

But come on, it’s a tablet.  It’s not like the concept hasn’t been around.  And yes, Apple will make it better, sleeker, prettier, easier to work with.  But trust me, if they come out and say that they plan on keeping their relationship with AT&T, there are a lot of people out there who will smile, nod, and wait for someone else to do the same thing with another carrier.  I love you Steve, but your choice of dance partners sucks.  And I don’t care how many julienne fries this little baby can make, in the words of Louis B. Mayer, “include me out”.

I mean I want my mobile devices to work, you know, when I’m mobile.

Now Playing: Carly Simon – Anticipation – Anticipation

WordPress Tags: Apple, Hype, Anticipation, Tablet

Take Two Tablets And Call Me In The Morning

Lately everyone is abuzz about tablets.  Apple is supposedly coming out with an iPod Touch on steroids, about a 10 inch screen, Michael Arrington is ready to release the “Crunchpad”  and folks are squaring off about the two, as others breathlessly declare 2010 “The Year of the Tablet”

OK guys, time to take a step back.  I know it has been a real bummer year for gadgets and the like, but a 10 inch Apple tablet is not going to save the world, regardless of what the fanbois may screech.  And for all the hype thrown at it, Arrington’s Crunchpad was built as a specific challenge that was met well in some ways (It surfs the web.  Period) and failed horribly in others (price).

But unless someone can show me how a tablet is a better device that a regular laptop, to quote Samuel Goldwyn, “include me out”.  The ergonomic problems with a laptop are bad enough. Now at work, I carry around a yellow notepad, old school person that I am.  The thought of carrying a three pound notepad all day?  At least with the yellow pad, I can throw it at someone when I’m pissed off and I won’t kill them.  Not that I would, but you get the idea.   Also, handwriting recognition still has a long way to go to being useful.  D n’t b lie e me?  ou tr9 i7 so^^etime.

What’s the price point for this thing?  $200? Sorry, Arrington tried and failed, and that’s a machine running Linux, for crying out loud.  $800? Buy a MacBook.  $500? Buy a 3G NetBook.  There is no price point that makes sense. 

Also the size.  A ten inch screen is not portable.  You have to carry it around in a bag.  Repeat after me-a laptop bag. 

But I’m sure that they will come and that people will spend money on them, if only to look cool.  As for me, if I’m spending $500 or more on a fashion accessory, it better be something that I can wear all the time.

Now Playing: Erasure – Loveboat – Mad as We Are