The Letter “W” And The Number 8

Microsoft unveiled their new operating system today, code named Windows 8 (Yeah I know, not much of a code name, but at least it isn’t named after food).  It is just as has been suspected; two kinds of applications for Windows 8, one that runs in a traditional desktop, and the other pseudo-mobile apps based on HTML5 and Javascript.  Both environments have been rebuilt to support touch, but keyboards and mice will still be accepted.  Multitasking is just a pull to the center of the screen, and there is a new version of Explorer, version 10.  Yes, there will be the ubiquitous app store.  Microsoft is being coy about when this will be released into the wild, given the walk back from Ballmer’s statements last week, but it looks like it could be a done deal and sooner than later. 

Of course, come the critics.  Basically it’s the same old song and dance: that Apple is Fred Astaire, while Windows is more like Kirstie Alley on “Dancing with the Stars”.  It can move, but do you want to be seen in public with it?  The criticisms boil down to this: Microsoft needs something bold and different.  Windows 8 looks to be a sad compromise of some sort. 

Still, this is a work in progress.  There are plenty of questions, but the point that everyone seems to forget is that there are plenty of businesses out there that are not and will never be ready to uproot everything they have and move to a brand new system.  That is the reality.  They didn’t do it for Vista and they won’t do it just because the fanbois out there are urging Microsoft to be more like Apple.  Windows 8 allows them to still have all that comfortably familiar legacy while introducing the next move.  It might work, it might not.  Only time will tell.

Micronokia?

Eldar Murtazin strikes again.  According to a post from the Russian, Microsoft and Nokia will enter talks next week to discuss the potential for the American software giant to purchase the Finnish company’s mobile arm. That means smartphones.  He went on to say that both side are in a hurry to complete the deal and that it could close by the end of the year.  While the rumor may seem to some as a strain on reality, Murtazin is usually more right than wrong.  Also,  after Murtazin’s post came out, Mark Squires, UK Communications Director for Nokia, issued a no comment:

We typically don’t comment on rumors. But we have to say that Eldar’s rumors are getting obviously less accurate with every passing moment.

Which, for many, means that Murtazin must have struck a nerve somewhere. 

So the question is why?  Why not?  Nokia market value is 33 billion and the company has been in profit since 1996. Taking away 9-10 billion cash after debt it sums to 23 billion. Microsoft could give its own shares to the Nokia owners and not to use any money. They would get for 23 billion a company that sells every third mobile phone on this planet plus 1/2 of the Nokia Siemens Networks (worth billions) and Navteq Corp..

After all, Microsoft is sitting on a ton of cash as well.  While people cringed at the 8.5 billion spent for Skype, the fact is, Microsoft had the cash to throw around. 

You also have to think of the patents that Microsoft would get, along with two more mobile operating systems to use/pilfer. 

So why the rush?  Because if as planned, Nokia starts to sell phones with Windows Phone 7 on them and sales start to pick up, Nokia becomes more expensive.  Better to do it now, if you’re going to do it. 

It is going to be fun to see how this plays out.

Skip Skype-ing Away

Well, Microsoft spent around 8 Billion (with a “B”) and bought internet voice company Skype last night. What is amazing is that while most people actually think that Skype and Microsoft is a better fit than Skype and Google or Skype and Facebook (the other two suitors), the deal was somehow the worst possible move that Microsoft could have done.  Doomed, I tell you.  Doomed.

I will give the fact that Microsoft’s acquisitions have not fared well.  How this is different from every other large company out there is beyond me, but let us forget that Google’s failure rate is fastly approaching that of AOL and that Apple has tasted the sour taste of failure as well.  This is about Microsoft, so we must go through the storyline that everything that Microsoft touches turns to lead.  Even when it doesn’t.

So what does Microsoft get for 8 billion dollars?  663 million total users, although most users are not active callers.  However, according to Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at CCS Insight in London. In voice services, “Skype has certainly set the benchmark and gained a lot of traction.”  Skype is a well known player.  It’s technology is fairly mature.  And unlike previous acquisitions where the question “What are you going to do with it now you have it?” was met with awkward pauses, the answers came fast and furious.  Skype on Windows Phone, Skype in Outlook, Skype in X-Box, and Skype with Lync, Microsoft’s corporate telephony services.  There are a lot of places in the Microsoft world where Skype could be used. 

Of course, analysts at Bloomberg couldn’t resist pointing out that “Microsoft’s backing of Skype may be seen as a threat by wireless carriers such as AT&T Inc. and Verizon Wireless because it could cut into voice revenue.”  Funny how the introduction of Apple’s Face Time wasn’t met with the same dire predictions.  After all, Apple is the market right now.  Microsoft is a far distant third.  One also tends to forget that Skype is available right now on Apple and Android products.  Yet the sky is falling only when Microsoft is in the room.  Funny, that. 

The question I have is the execution of the plan.  If this is going to work and really scare people, it will need to be done quickly.  No two years later-this will have to hit the ground running within the next six months.  Maybe not everything, but movement will need to be shown.  The good points are that Microsoft has now become the clear leader in video communication and that Skype’s leader, Tony Bates is staying along for the ride.  Microsoft says it will be exciting times ahead.  I certainly hope so. 

The More You Know (And Shooting Star)

Quite a bit has happened this week. The world is fixated on the growing Japanese nuclear problem, but one thing I keep wondering about is that since Japan is the acknowledged leader in robotic technology, why haven’t we been seeing more robotic technology not only in the nuclear problem but also search and rescue from the earthquake and tsunami?  I’m sure the technology is being used in some way, but there is nothing newsworthy.  Odd.

Speaking of the earthquake, Only 6 hours later and we had a full blown article with citations about the earthquake and tsunami including facts about the quake as well as international responses.  That is what the internet is really all about.  Also, the tsunami warning system took only 12 minutes after the 8.9 magnitude quake hit Sendai on Friday for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to alert emergency workers in California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska that a potentially catastrophic tsunami was heading their way. Considering the waves were moving at approximately 500 miles per hour, that is money and lives saved. BTW, some want to gut the funding for this, because saving lives obviously it isn’t that important.

Senator Al Franken was at SXSW in Austin to tell everyone there the obvious:  If Net Neutrality rules were deleted, then the terrorists corporations have won.  Franken, who has his own problems with the FCC’s regulations, accused conservatives of hijacking the Internet debate. “They’ll tell you that putting rules in place to preserve Net neutrality as it exists today amounts to a government takeover of the Internet, a talking point deserves a place alongside death panels and Obama’s a Muslim.”  Not long after that AT&T announced they were going to cap download limits.  Journalists still have yet to see the connection.

Speaking of journalist not doing their jobs, Anonymous released the long awaited bank of America documents.  Since all the TV journalists were standing amongst the rubble in Sendai to show that they were “on top of the news”, this was easily forgotten. Granted, the back door dealings that brought the world economy to its knees isn’t as sexy a shot as standing next to a tanker dry docked by nature a mile from the beach but shouldn’t someone be talking about it?

Finally in some good news, Microsoft and the government felled the giant spam farm Rustock, lessening spam worldwide by about 40 percent.  A lawsuit by Microsoft that was unsealed at the company’s request late today triggered several coordinated raids last Wednesday that took down Rustock, a botnet that infected millions of computers with malicious code in order to turn them into a massive spam-sending network. So you can thank Microsoft for less spam about fake watches and fake viagra in your mailbox today.  Makes up for the fact that this week they killed off the Zune player.

Let X=X

Oh yeah,

P.S.

I

I feel

Feel like

I am

in a burning building

and I’ve got to go…

Laurie Anderson:  Let X=X/It Tango

While Nokia CEO Stephen Elop did not intentionally channel the pre-eminent performance artist in his “burning platform’ memo to Nokia’s employees, it sure sounded like a great piece of performance art.   It was blunt, unblinking and correct in every way.  It was written to scare a complacent bureaucracy into action.  Hopefully it will accomplish what it set out to do. 

The points are simple.  He contends that Nokia failed to mobilize an adequate response to Apple’s launch of the iPhone. More to the point, he acknowledges that Nokia still hasn’t managed to create a product that rivals the iPhone user experience.  He notes that Android has only been out for two years and during that time has created a “gravitational force” , while during that same time, Nokia has only one product utilizing their top of the line platform, MeeGo.    In the mean time, low end smartphones from China  are taking the bottom half of Nokia’s market. 

Elop says that the company will unveil a “new strategy” on Friday with the aim of changing course. Although the specific details of the new plan aren’t known yet, there has been a great deal of speculation. It’s widely-believed that Elop is preparing to reorganize the company and replace many senior executives.  There is also the rumor of tying Nokia to the Microsoft Windows Phone 7.  That move is questionable, but not out of the range of possibility. 

The truth and the direction will come out on Friday.  Untl then, the platform is indeed burning and the real questions seem to be how far is the drop and how cold is the water below.

Someone Call the Whaambulance

Yesterday, Google breathlessly announced to the world that Microsoft was copying, nay, stealing  search results and demanded that Microsoft stop immediately!

In the words that genius of the English language, Chad Ochocinco, “Child, please.”  To accomplish this sting operation, Google had their engineers install the Bing toolbar, make some made up words and cause Google’s SERPs to link to random unrelated sites. A few weeks later, around 8% of those sites showed up on Bing for those queries.  AHA!  Caught them red handed!  Um, no.  Do this: install the Google Toolbar and do a search of Bing, and guess what?  Google actually directs your clickstream back for its own analysis. AHA!  And really, that appears to be all Bing is doing, as it offers a similar option to record users’ behaviors and upload it back to Bing to improve its results. (In fact, Bing allows their data collection on the toolbar to be turned off.  You do not have that same option with Google.)

So, is Bing using Google to return results?  Not really.  All Bing is doing is factoring in multiple people visiting a specific page when they search for a specific term. This clickstream data apparently has a low weight in the algorithm for the overall results. Given that the keyword searched for was not a real word, any other signals with higher weight were rendered useless as they would not return a result.  Also, there are 9 results that do not show up on Bing. If Bing were “copying” Google’s results, then they should all show up on Bing.

This isn’t a case of plagiarism, unless someone can prove unequivocally that Microsoft is copying original content without properly attributing or claiming it as their own. Google just serves up loads of other content created by others, which isn’t plagiarism either. It’s all in the algorithms. The most popular news will always come up on top no matter what search engine you use.

But this also points out that yes, indeed it is still possible to game the search engine system.  It’s not easy, but it can still be done.  But stealing?  Sorry, Google, no.

By the way, how’s that totally original Android platform coming along?

Ballmer – No Matter Where You Go, There We Are

At a CES that has been tidy and boring so far, Steve Ballmer gave an address to fit the event.  It was everything that people expected, no big gaffes, but then, no big deal.  He could have easily picked up a Win7 Phone and phoned it in.  Well, he sort of did, in fact.

Like I said, no big surprises.  The good news: an update to Win7 Phone that allows cut and paste, amongst other things.  More fun stuff coming later down the road.  Heard all about that yesterday, Steve.  Nice to know it’s not a rumor.  Also next version of Windows will support System on a Chip (SoC) architecture, in particular ARM-based systems from partners such as Qualcomm, Nvidia and Texas Instruments.  Well, you did sign an agreement with them earlier last year, so that was expected as well.  The development is coming along nicely though.  Thanks for sharing. 

Kinect is bigger than expected and they have even bigger plans for it coming soon.  Interesting and cool, but only if you own an X-box.  And Steve, telling people that your gaming system is now an entertainment hub doesn’t necessarily make it so.  On this I will say that in many ways, Microsoft is well ahead of Google TV.  But just like everyone, Steve, your team still has not made that compelling product that makes everyone have to have it.  Kinect is a great start to that end, but it is only a part of it.  And you know that by this time next year, Nintendo and Sony will have their own version of Kinect available.  This isn’t like the iPad where it’s been a year and no one seems to be able to match it.  Speaking of tablets, good move for not bringing one out this time, like you did last year.  I’m still not forgiving you for killing Courier.  Yes, I’m still bitter on that. Whatever.  Surface 2 is interesting, but I really don’t see restaurants incorporating this any time soon.  Printing menus is still cheaper. 

But for better or for worse, you are right about one thing-Microsoft is still pretty much everywhere we go and even though tech pundits may swoon over Steve Jobs’ turtleneck, the fact is Microsoft is not going away any time soon.  Just like governmental bureaucracy.

…Try the Veal, And Remember to Tip Your Waitress…

Happy New Year to all.  And since it is the new year, it’s time to climb into the Rambler and head to Las Vegas for this year’s Consumer Electronics Show. 

Of course, it would be really fun this year if there was something to see.  But there won’t be.  It looks to be a basic re-run of 2010 with some minor updates.  Do not expect anything massive or unexpected.  People are saying evolutionary, not revolutionary.  Which basically means boring.

You will see tablets.  All kinds of tablets.  So many tablets.  You will hear people gushing about tablets like new parents go on about their child.  That child’s name, by the way, is Honeycomb, the latest version of Android.  Because that is what most of the new tablets will be ready to run.  Do yourself a favor-understand that  if you have an iPad, you’ve still got the best thing out there for the moment.  But if you’re really interested, pass by all the others though, and stop by Research In Motion’s  booth to see their Playbook tablet.  Right now, if there is anything that could take on the iPad and carve out some space, it will be that.  But trust me, Apple is still king for the moment. 

Also, everyone is holding their collective breath over what Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg will say, given he will have the all important keynote address.  Breathe.  He’ll talk about his “4G” network, that isn’t 4G at all.  If you think that he’ll mention iPhone and Verizon in the same sentence, forget it.  If he does, Steve Jobs will kill him and bury him out in the desert before nightfall.

Expect Intel to be talking up its Sandy Bridge chip and PC manufacturers to present Kate Moss thin laptops.  You will also see the next generation of smartphone handsets equipped with dual core chips. Smarter, faster, but yeah, expected.  Nothing surprising or really newsworthy. 

What you probably won’t see is much emphasis on Google TV.  That was going to be the big thing this year and then…nothing.  Google is keeping mum as to what is going on (or going wrong), but the fact is, consumers just didn’t pick it up at Christmas like Google thought they would.  Again, not having the major networks on the same page also makes things difficult. 

So realize that if you’re going to the show this year, you’ll probably have a lot of free time on your hands.  Garth Brooks is playing at the Wynn Encore.  Given the show he puts on, it will probably be more exciting. Just remember, tip your waitress.  They work hard for the money.

It’s A Festivus Miracle!

Today is Festivus. In accordance with tradition, I submit my 2010 Airing of Grievances. The following have disappointed me over the past year, in no particular order:

• Carol Bartz for still not figuring out what Yahoo is, $@#$#%#^^$%!!!!!!!!!!!. Of course no one else has either, but really, she is the head Hooligan, so she should have some idea.
• Steve Jobs for not allowing Chris Chang’s company to make a really cool action figure of him. Yeah I know, someone would put a mini Darth Vader helmet on it and then make a viral video which would piss him off to no end. But really, Steve, I promise I wouldn’t skewer you too much.
• Ray Ozzie for not gathering the Microsoft developers French revolution style and storming Ballmer’s office for cancelling Courier. Of course I get the fact that Ray didn’t want his breast exposed as in the painting. But still, it would have been awesome.
• Every single TV maker in the world. 3-D. Really? After all these years and the only thing you can offer as an advancement in 3-d technology is polarized glasses? Really?
• Google. Before rolling out Google TV, don’t you think it would have been a really keen idea to get the networks to buy into it?
• Apple. Ping. The less said, the better.
• Airlines that think that voice recognition is really cool. It isn’t. It’s annoying. I have to say the same thing five times before the system recognizes it, or else do my impression of Lillith from Frasier.
• The TSA. Come on guys, I’ve been looking for a real good grope, and nothing. Am I that undesirable? I feel cheated.
• People on Facebook who immediately are up in arms when a change is made to the system. There’s a life out there. Go get one.
• By that same token, Facebook. You know if you set everyone’s privacy to the highest and let them decide to open themselves up, you wouldn’t have so many people out there screaming. Just a thought.
• Apple again for pretending to be East Germany over losing an iPhone, complete with Stasi-like raids in the middle of the night.
• Steve Jobs again, this time for telling left handed people that the iPhone is perfect and they are not.
• Viacom, for still continuing with a lawsuit that has been thrown out of court once.
• Microsoft for allowing Kin to see the light of day.
• Telecom companies that have made a standard like 4G a marketing tool. When you do things like that, then we know you aren’t telling the truth about anything, OK?
• And finally, to politicians who decry Net Neutrality really loud. Please to note that those who cry the loudest are the ones who have received huge amounts of money from the telecom companies. I still think that our legislators need to wear NASCAR jumpsuits with patches of the companies and groups who have sponsor them. Now that would be transparency I could get behind.

Table Talk or Something More?

The best rumors are the ones that make sense.  Like today’s hot item.  According to Eldar Murtazin, a man who knows Nokia better than some may wish to admit, Nokia and Microsoft have been talking lately.  Now companies talk all the time.  When news broke out one morning not long ago that Microsoft was seen talking with Adobe, Michael Arrington had hung a price tag on Adobe before noon.  Nice thought, but nothing happening.  So it may well be with this.  Table talk, nothing more.

But I have to admit, that given the number of times Eldar has been correct, it does mean you stop for a moment and listen to the story.  And apparently the story goes like this: the two companies met behind closed doors last month, a meeting spearheaded by new leadership teams at Nokia, discussing not only the option to exchange technologies but also roll out an “entire line” of Windows Phone devices.

Now, when presented with a rumor like this, you need to look at the surrounding evidence.

Motive

• Nokia is not number One in the US any more.  They need to get back on the top of the heap. 
• Microsoft’s Windows Seven operating system, while critically praised has been selling slower than Microsoft would like.  It would be pretty nice if they could run their operating system on some of the most technologically advanced handsets around.

Facts

• Nokia has recently appointed Stephen Elop as its new CEO.  Elop is  a former Microsoft executive, and Nokia continues to maintain a good working relationship with the Microsoft over Microsoft Office and Silverlight compatibility for its Symbian software.
• Nokia’s operating system, Symbian,  is not seen as a challenger to Android or iOS. 

For the flip side of the coin

• Nokia has put a lot of time and energy into Symbian and into Meego, the venture with Intel. Moving away from that is a lot of money down the tubes.
• When the story of Nokia working with others broke back in September, Nokia vehemently denied it.  But that story broke as the guard was changing.  New leaders have new ideas.

But even with the denials, there is still the problem of time.  According to the latest figures, Nokia is still the biggest phone manufacturer in the world, but its share is quickly eroded by Android, which has gobbled up over a quarter of the worldwide mobile OS market with no signs of stopping any time soon.  There is also that little hipster thing call the iPhone that is getting just as much attention.  Movement has to happen now. Even though Nokia says they are updating Symbian, the fact is they have had a rather lengthy period to do so, with not much to show in comparison to Android, Apple or even Microsoft .  My guess is that is one of the things that caused the company to bring in a new CEO.   After all, you don’t bring in a new leader because things are going well. 

Also, no where is mentioned in  Eldar’s rumor that one would replace the other.  That is important.  It would be beneficial for both companies in the short term, as Nokia shores up the Meego and Symbian lines and Microsoft would get a sweet handset (or two) to throw out to the public.  But again, this may be nothing more than dinner conversation, although the reasons for it being more than that are out there.